In line with other western countries the birth rate in the UK continues to fall for the eighth year running. Between January and September there were 464,437 live births in England and Wales. This is a drop of 17,330 compared to the same period in 2019. This is a 15.3% decrease since the most recent peak of 548,086 in 2012.
This is also reflected in the total fertility rate. This is the predicted average number of children a typical woman would have in her lifetime and all other factors being equal, which fell from 1.65 in 2019 to 1.6 for the first nine months of 2020.
How has the COVID-19 lockdown affected the UK birth rate?
There were 153,463 births during the period of lockdown between April and June of this year, the lowest during these months since 2011. However, it is too early to say if the lockdown will enhance the already downward trend on births in 2021/2022. The good news is that the stillbirth rate is also falling, decreasing from 4.0 stillbirths per 1,000 total births in 2019 to 3.9 in the first three quarters of 2020. This is also in line with a long-term UK trend.
The proportion of preterm live births also fell for the second year in a row, from 7.8% in 2019 to 7.5% in the first three quarters of 2020. However, the proportion of low birthweight babies remained stable, as it has done for the past decade; hovering between 6.8% and 7.1%.
David Corps, of the UK’s Office of National Statistics, which compiled the numbers said, “In line with recent trends there have been fewer births in 2020 so far, compared with the same stage in 2019. There were over 150,000 live births during quarter two, coinciding with the first lockdown and the tightest restrictions, with similar numbers born in quarter one, before the lockdown restrictions. There have been concerns about the effect of the pandemic on stillbirth rates and while studies in other nations have reported a reduction in preterm births during lockdowns, we found that stillbirth rates and preterm live births in England and Wales in 2020 are broadly in line with recent national trends.”
This suggests that, so far, the pandemic has not had an overall effect on the overall trends for births in the UK seen over the last decade. However, as mentioned, it remains to be seen if the lockdown has an effect on future birth rates in 2021 and potentially if UK lockdowns are reinstated in the New Year.
