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Western fertility rates decline again

According to US Centers for Disease Control, the US fertility rate has fallen to its lowest in over 40 years. America’s birth rate is falling far below what is needed to maintain economic growth. US women  WANT to have an average of 2.7 children, but the number they will ACTUALLY have is only 1.8.

There  were 3,791,712 births in the US 2018. That’s just 59 for every 1,000 women of childbearing age. This is down 2% from 2017 and 15% from 2007.

Provisional data was released back in May, so this new data confirms it. The last time the birth rate was this low was 1976.

  • 2016: Birth rate per woman: 1.821
  • 2017: Birth rate per woman: 1.766
  • 2018: Birth rate per woman: 1.728
  • 1976: Birth rate per woman: 1.738

The economics of childbirth

Birth rates have dipped before, most noticeably in the mid 1970s and the early 1990s. And these dips coincided with economic recessions in the west. After all, postponing children in a time of economic uncertainty makes sense.

So, this would explain the precipitous decline from the last peak in 2008. It would also, to some extent explain why there hasn’t been a rebound since then. For many people in the US, despite media headlines, there has been no economic recovery since the 2008 crash. And inequality has become worse.

US women are marrying later in life

But could there be more to it than purely economics?

The demographer Lyman Stone, a fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, thinks there could be a societal answer: marriage.

This is because when women marry, they tend to have very high birth rates. Not only that but the fertility rates of married women haven’t changed much in twenty years. Stone suggests the decline in fertility since 2001 can be explained by changes in the marital composition of the population. It just means that a smaller proportion of women are married during their peak-fertility years.

On the face of it this seems like a reasonable explanation, but is it the only one?

The young and poor are showing the biggest declines in birth rate

Generation X (born 1960-1980) middle-class women were more likely to marry in their late 20s and have children in their early 30s. Millennials (born 1980-2000) middle-class women are more likely to marry in their early 30s and have children in their late 30s. However, statistically, the drops in childbearing have been in women of significantly lower age:

  • Net change in birth rate (age 15-19) between 2007 and 2018: (negative) -24.1%
  • Net change in birth rate (age 20-24) between 2007 and 2018: (negative) -37.4%

This is a huge change in what should be the most fertile section of the population. It can’t just be explained by middle-class Millennials postponing marriage. The drop in teenage birth rates is encouraged and can be explained in terms of better sex education. But the drop in young adult birth rates is worrying.

So, what is going on?

In all probability these factors are coming together. But it looks like the single biggest factor is that young poor and working-class women are postponing marriage. By default, they are therefore postponing childbirth.

The growth in the number of middle-class women having children later in life cannot compete to make up the difference. The reason that these younger and poorer women are postponing marriage is likely to be due to economic factors. A similar situation was reported in the 1970s and early 1990s.

In the US we are told that the economy is doing great. But these CDC figures on birth rate proves that the economy is only doing great for some. For young and poor US women nothing has changed in a decade.

Social change is inevitable as a result of this. If economic growth is to continue, young people are needed. If they don’t come from the birth rate, demand will find them from somewhere else, such as immigration.

Moves to help less well-off women access fertility services, such as employers providing fertility services within health insurance are welcome. These will help to offset the impact of the demographic changes that we will surely see as a result of the low US fertility rate.